[GEM] THE GEM MESSENGER, Volume 25, Number 38

Sat Sep 12 18:41:48 PDT 2015

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     THE GEM MESSENGER
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Volume 25, Number 38
September 12, 2015

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Table of Contents

1. 2015 Summer Workshop Report: Metrics and Validation Focus Group
2. Announcement of Joint Special Issue: JGR-Space and JGR-Atmospheres
3. JOB OPENING: Post-doctoral Research Associate at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center with the New Mexico Consortium

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1. 2015 Summer Workshop Report: Metrics and Validation Focus Group
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From: Timothy Guild, Lutz Rastaetter (lutz.rastaetter-1 at nasa.gov), Howard Singer (Co-Chairs)

The GGCM Metrics and Validation Focus Group convened two sessions during the GEM Summer Workshop in Snowmass, Colorado.  The first session was held in the morning on Wednesday, June 17, 2015 and focused on the magnetopause modeling challenge, included some additional contributions, and discussed the wrap-up of the focus group that is coming to an end this year.

Session on magnetopause modeling challenge, other contributions and focus group wrap-up:

Community Coordinated Modeling Center staff presented plans to augment and finalize the magnetopause modeling study that was begun at the CCMC and modelers contributed model assessments that included past event analyses and statistical approaches to evaluating real-time model results.

One of the model validation studies is the specification of the magnetopause location and comparisons with the prediction of when satellites at geosynchronous orbit could be located in the magnetosheath under storm-time solar wind conditions. Lutz Rastaetter presented recent advances in the automated calculation of skill scores using results from GEM modeling challenge events. Skill scores based on contingency tables derived for magnetopause crossings can be compiled in a similar manner as was used in a previous study for determining model skill at predicting the crossing of various dB/dt threshold levels for ground-magnetic perturbations.

Yaireska Collado Vega’s presentation suggested ways to select and analyze magnetopause crossing events during steady solar wind conditions to constrain possible magnetopause standoff values through multi-spacecraft observations and to determine lag times inherent in each of the magnetosphere models.

Mike Wiltberger showed the analysis for LFM modeling of a storm event with the skill scores based on successful forecasts (both when events are predicted and are occurring and when they are not predicted and are not occurring) and failed forecasts (events predicted but not occurring or events occurring and not predicted).

Rob Redmon reported on the future of GOES missions with plasma and magnetic field instrumentation supporting magnetopause determination. He listed magnetopause models that may soon enter operations at SWPC and emphasized that magnetic field measurements at GOES alone are not sufficient to identify magnetopause crossings (the usual criterion of Bz < 0 may occur in the magnetotail inside the magnetopause or may not occur when the dayside magnetosheath field is nearly parallel to the geomagnetic field).

Mike Liemohn presented results from an analysis of outputs of the SWMF magnetosphere model that is being run in real-time at the CCMC. His analysis included daily minimum values of magnetopause standoff on the Sun-Earth line and compared them to the Shue magnetopause model driven by OMNI solar wind inputs.

Dan Welling presented statistical distributions of errors between model results and observations and organized averages and errors by solar wind drivers to reveal systematic biases and trends not seen in other analyses. He used magnetic perturbations at magnetometer stations calculated by the SWMF model during six events in the recently completed GEM magnetosphere modeling challenge.

Concluding the session, Howard Singer presented a review of the activities and accomplishments of the M&V focus group, and led a discussion to explore ideas about the future role of M&V in GEM.  Some past studies included the validation of models, such as the GEM magnetosphere modeling challenge that studied magnetic fields at geosynchronous orbit, predicting Dst index values, and predicting magnetic perturbations at magnetometer station locations, and regional and planetary K index values.  In the future, model-observation comparison studies will remain an integral part of any development within the GEM community. The preference voiced in the discussion was toward a Modeling and Measurement focus group with some suggesting the group should work mostly embedded in other focus groups, and others suggesting the need for continuing a distinct focus group.  The conveners closed by encouraging attendees to propose follow-on focus groups as the community sees fit for evaluation at the mini-GEM meeting in December, 2015.

Session on ULF wave modeling challenge:

We had ten contributions starting with Seth Claudepierre’s introduction on the motivation of modeling ULF wave fields by global magnetosphere models.  The goal is to ultimately understand many aspects of how ULF pulsations in the global field can radially diffuse energetic electrons in the outer radiation belt.  Since this is a complex goal, the modeling challenge will first focus on how well MHD models can specify the ULF wave field in terms of distribution and intensity of ULF power. A second component will address the ability of the ULF power distribution to affect the outer radiation belt as observed by the Van Allen Probes during March 1–15, 2013.  A presentation by Ian Mann (given by Kyle Murphy) reported on time periods from ground magnetometer data and THEMIS satellite observations when capabilities of global magnetosphere models can be tested. Peter Chi spoke about global observations of ULF power by the ULTIMA (Ultra Large Terrestrial International Magnetometer Array) network of ground magnetometers. He noted that the solar wind parameters can explain only up to ~60% of Pc5 power and that for understanding the effects on radiation belt electrons, one needs to consider the importance of observed ULF wave activity in contrast to using ULF climatology. He also spoke about needing to consider the importance of high-m poloidal waves on radiation belts. Ashar Ali reported how one can obtain radial diffusion coefficients from Van Allen Probe measurements of electric and magnetic fields. Chih-Ping Wang reported on RBSP and THEMIS and Geotail observations and LFM modeling of a 2-hour ULF wave interval. Lutz Rastaetter reported on progress made in ULF field modeling at the CCMC in support of the ULF challenge. Coli Komar presented SWMF/BATSRUS model results and electron resonance conditions and Bob Lysak presented his inner magnetosphere model of ULF wave power distributions. Slava Merkin presented ULF modeling results obtained by the LFM model and Scot Elkington presented ULF mode structure calculations. Finally, Qianli Ma presented a radial diffusion model applicable to the March 2013 interval featuring a quiet-time slow inward diffusion event.

Presentations given at the two sessions are available on the web site of the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) under “Metrics and Validation” (check for “GEM Magnetopause Challenge” and “GEM ULF Wave Modeling Challenge”).

Recent Publications:

Rastaetter, L., G. Toth, M. M. Kuznetsova, and A. A. Pulkkinen (2014), CalcDeltaB: An efficient postprocessing tool to calculate ground-level magnetic perturbations from global magnetosphere simulations, Space Weather, 11, doi:10.1002/2014SW001083.

Rastaetter, L., J.-S. Shim, M. M. Kuznetsova, D. J. Knipp, L. M. Kilcommons, M. Codrescu, T. Fuller-Rowell, B. Emery, D. R. Weimer, R. Cosgrove, M. Wiltberger, J. Raeder, W. Li, G. Toth D. Welling (2015), “GEM-CEDAR challenge: Poynting flux at DMSP and modeled Joule heat”, submitted to Space Weather

A. Glocer, et al. (2015), Community-wide validation of geospace modeling challenge: regional and planetery K-index, to be submitted to Space Weather.

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2. Announcement of Joint Special Issue: JGR-Space and JGR-Atmospheres
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From: Robyn Millan (robyn.millan at dartmouth.edu)

Title: Energetic Electron Loss and its Impacts on the Atmosphere
Open for submissions: Sept. 1, 2015 - January 29, 2016
Organizers: Robyn Millan, Pekka Verronen and Alexa Halford

Manuscripts are invited for a joint special issue between JGR-Space Physics and JGR-Atmospheres on recent advances in energetic (~120 keV - 10 MeV) electron loss in the magnetosphere and the impacts of energetic precipitation on the atmosphere.  

We welcome submissions on the study of processes that cause energetic precipitation and quantify the relative importance of precipitation versus magnetopause loss for the radiation belts and ring current. There is evidence that energetic precipitation may have significant impacts on the atmosphere through the production of odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOx), which can affect ozone chemistry, and lead to modification of atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions.

This special issue welcomes observational studies that use historical or recent data sets as well as theoretical studies of electron loss and its impacts. Manuscripts should be submitted through the JGR-Space Physics or JGR-Atmospheres web sites. 

For additional information please contact Robyn.Millan at dartmouth.edu or contact the journal directly:  jgr-spacephysics at agu.org or jgr-atmospheres at agu.org

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3. JOB OPENING: Post-doctoral Research Associate at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center with the New Mexico Consortium
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From: Liz MacDonald (eliz.macdonald at gmail.com)

The New Mexico Consortium (www.newmexicoconsortium.org) has an immediate opening for a space weather post-doctoral research associate for the new Aurorasaurus citizen science project (www.aurorasaurus.org). Duties will include analysis of space weather data (specifically related to the prediction of aurora during storm and substorm times), and associated crowdsourced observations of aurora. The post-doc's primary objective will be to develop a nowcast model of the aurora that incorporates human observations. Robust programming experience, initiative, and a strong history of publications are required. Experience and enthusiasm with mobile technologies, social media and web design are appreciated. A Ph.D. is preferred but exceptional candidates at other levels will be considered.

 This is a one year full-time project with an option for extension contingent on performance. Applications will be reviewed as soon as received and the position will be open until filled. The position is located at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD, beginning around Nov 1. Interested applicants are encouraged to contact Dr. Liz MacDonald (eliz.macdonald at gmail.com) with any questions. New Mexico Consortium is an independent nonprofit EOE employer. Please apply online at www.newmexicoconsortium.org/about/application and include a resume, cover letter, code sample, and 3 recommendation letters. Aurorasaurus is an interdisciplinary innovative project funded by NSF and collaborates with educators and social scientists to improve public nowcasting of aurora in this, the first solar maximum with social media.

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